Finals Number Crunching

The VFL’s home and away season will come to an exciting and unmissable climax this weekend, when three teams jockey for top spot, another three for the final place in the top four and four more for the final two places in the eight.

As the weekend starts Casey, Richmond, Geelong, Williamstown, Collingwood and Box Hill are all guaranteed of Spring time football, but each enter the weekend knowing a good result or two will significantly enhance their prospects of premiership success.

Lets take a look at the situation as it stands and what each scenario knows for next weekend.

Box Hill

Current position: 6th
Highest possible position: 4th
Lowest possible position: 6th

How do we finish fourth?
Scenario 1:
Hawks defeat Cats, Casey defeat Williamstown and Sandringham Defeat Collingwood.

Scenario 2: Casey defeat Williamstown, Collingwood narrowly defeat Sandringham and Hawks defeat Cats by a margin significant enough to leapfrog the Magpies on percentage (the current differential is – 2.99%)

How do we finish sixth?
a failure to beat Geelong will more than likely see the Hawks remain in sixth position, though the result of Collingwood vs Sandringham could see the Magpies drop below the Hawks on percentage should the Zebras win comfortably.

Our Opponents?

Scenario 1: If the Hawks are to finish fourth they’ll will play Casey in a Qualifying Final, as the Demons will have beaten Williamstown to sew up top spot and allow us to capture the final double chance.

Scenario 2: A failure to make the top four would pit the Hawks against any one of Port Melbourne, Essendon, Footscray or North Melbourne, though percentage will likely preclude the last two from finishing as high as seventh.

Number Crunching

Casey 56 148.72 1st 3rd
Richmond 52 158.51 1st 3rd*
Geelong 52 153.01 1st 3rd*
Williamstown 48 127.35 4th 6th
Collingwood 44 129.72 4th 6th
Box Hill 44 126.73 4th 6th
Port Melbourne 36 105.36 7th 9th*
Essendon 32 121.40 7th 10th
Footscray 32 97.16 7th 10th
North Melbourne 32  86.57 8th^ 10th

^ percentage unlikely to allow them to finish higher than 8th
* percentage strong enough to ward of challengers below in the event of a tie for points

And everyone else?

Casey Williamstown (H) Finish first finish first if they match Richmond and Geelong’s results; finish third if Richmond and Geelong win
Richmond Frankston (A) Finish first if Casey lose; finish second if Casey win Finish second if Geelong lose; finish third if Geelong win
Geelong Box Hill (A) Finish first if Casey and Richmond lose; finish second if Richmond lose; finish third if Richmond win and Casey win or draw Finish third
Williamstown Casey (A) Finish fourth Finish fourth if Collingwood and Box Hill lose; finish fifth if Collingwood win and Box Hill lose; finish sixth if Collingwood and Box Hill win
Collingwood Sandringham (H) Finish fourth if Williamstown lose and they better Box Hill’s result Finish fifth if Box Hill lose; finish sixth if Box Hill lose
Box Hill Geelong (H) Finish fourth if Williamstown lose and we better Collingwood’s result Finish sixth.
Port Melbourne Footscray (A) Finish seventh Finish seventh if Essendon lose; finish 8th if Essendon win; finish outside eight if Essendon and Footscray win (and the latter makes up their percentage shortfall)
Essendon Northern Blues (H) Finish seventh if Port Melbourne loses; finish eighth if Port Melbourne wins Finish eighth if Footscray and North Melbourne lose; finish outside eight if Footscray or North Melbourne wins
Footscray Port Melbourne (H) Finish seventh if Essendon fail to win and they make up percentage shortfall; finish eighth if Essendon fail to win and they don’t overtake Port Melbourne on percentage; finish outside eight if Essendon win and they don’t overtake Port Melbourne on percentage Finish outside eight
North Melbourne Werribee (A) Finish eighth if Essendon and Footscray fail to win; finish outside eight if either Essendon or Footscray win Finish outside eight

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